In the last industrial revolution in the 1900s, many new jobs were formed in new industries, which resulted in driving large sections of the population out of poverty. We are seeing a similar trend in developing countries, but as those countries themselves become more developed and more like the U.S., economists debate whether the increasing standard of living phenomenon is a) delayed; b) won’t happen in mature developed economies; or c) whether there is a fundamental shift in the nature of work in the 21^st century.

Work is being automated at a rapid scale. Anything that can be automated will be automated. Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems are able to now look at radiology scans more accurately than humans. Voice response systems are actually working. Warehouse security guards are being replaced by roving robots.

These trends will lead to the following phases in the next 45 years:

• Globalization and Telepresence (2016-2026)

• Entrepreneurship, creativity and learning (2026-2050)

• Basic Income (2050 Onwards)

Globalization and Telepresence (2016-2026)

Despite recent political events around the world taking a more insular turn, I am seeing jobs being done by people from outside the country even when if there is no immigration. Customer care call centers are well known to be outsourced to other countries – but recently I visited a firm where the receptionist was replaced with a telepresence robot with a video screen showing a staff member greeting me locally, but the staff member was employed in another part of the world. Even if immigration is limited, jobs will still graduate to the lowest cost, highest performance suppliers - enabled by new technologies. There will be tension as large swathes of industries are replaced either by globalization or AI or both. No group, except perhaps somewhat for the idea creators, will be left untouched. Seemingly untouchable intellectual industries such as medicine will give way to globalization and AI fronts simultaneously via telemedicine and AI, as the industry is deskilled. Virtual Reality (VR) technologies, just beginning now, will be an accelerator of this phenomenon in the 2020-2026 timeframe.

Entrepreneurship, Creativity and Learning (2026-2050)

Due to basic jobs being automated or globalized, the workforce will be forced to undertake skills for retraining and transfer of professions. Universities will offer more courses for people to come back in their 50s. Such new skills will be around creativity, or necessarily human touch industries – think haircuts and interior design. Company and idea building will become ever easier with industries to take computer aided drawings for 3D printing for assembly and drop shipping to e-commerce sites. More people will become independent workers and a smaller proportion will work for corporate America making commoditized goods.

Basic Income (2050 Onwards)

In this environment there are not enough jobs and yet there is enough GDP for the whole country. However, this is unequally spread. In this case, vast parts of the population are provided a basic income from the government to avoid revolution and there will be efforts to keep the population occupied. Such basic income would cover one’s basic needs but not a luxurious life. This will further drive people to be more creative. The good news is that it will be easier to do so with leveraged AI help. AI may even do the creative part as well under direction from such humans and there will be debates about who is the inventor as AI starts to file patents by itself.

The Good News and the Bad News

People will live longer, and be healthier. However, the planet will be under greater stress; fortunately, there will be more time by more people to devote to solving planetary problems to save the planet.